The Isthmian, The Southern and The Northern Prem

So now it’s time to try and find out which is the strongest of the three step 3 Leagues.

I’ll use the same principle I used in looking at Conference North and South: examining the change in success rates from season to season for teams moving between step 2 and step 3, in either direction.

Luckily, all the moves involving  Northern  Premier League clubs are to or from Conference North - so that means very few problems with that.

But there is one, and it occurs twice: it's what to do with clubs which were demoted, rather than relegated.

There are two examples involving Conference North clubs who ended up in the NPL the following season:  Boston, in 2007-08, and Northwich, in 2009-10.

Boston finished 10th in 2007-08 with a success rate of 50% but were relegated for infringing the Conference's insolvency regulations; the same regulations did for Northwich in 2009-10 after they had finished 12th of 20 with a success rate of 53.75% - their bottom half position being accounted for by a ten-point deduction.
I'd argue that teams demoted for non-footballing reasons would be likely to suffer more than their fellow-relegatees, albeit from a stronger initial position.   I'd also point out that there aren't any teams promoted for non-footballing reasons to even things up.


Take a look at this table, showing all the clubs relegated to the NPL from Conference North - including Northwich  and Boston:

Tables for the NPL and Isthmian League will show this information:
First of two seasons covered;
Team name;
Success rate at step 2;
Success rate at step 3;
Change in success rate

				Table A
				step 2	step 3	Change
200405		Runcorn	..	38.10%	27.38%	-10.71%
200405		Ashton	..	29.76%	42.86%	13.10%
200405		Bradford PA	..	22.62%	34.52%	11.90%
200506		Hednesford	..	33.33%	59.52%	26.19%
200607		Worksop	..	39.29%	47.50%	8.21%
200708		Boston	..	50.00%	44.05%	-5.95%
200708		Leigh	..	23.81%	34.52%	10.71%
200809		Burscough	..	30.95%	40.79%	9.84%
200809		Hucknall	..	27.38%	42.11%	14.72%
200910		Northwich	..	53.75%	53.57%	0.18%
201011		Stafford	..	30.00%	42.86%	12.86%
201112		Blyth Sp	..	32.14%	42.86%	10.71%
201112		Eastwood	..	19.05%	14.29%	-4.76%
				33.09%	40.52%	7.46%

You'll see there that Boston suffered a decline in their success rate - something that only happened to Runcorn and Eastwood among the other relegated clubs.  Both of those had serious financial problems - Eastwood's coming about from a decision near he end of the 2010-11 season when he FA decided that they wouldn't be allowed to participate in the play-offs because of issues with their Coronation Park ground: that led to a decline in funding for them and they are still feeling the effects today.
I'm minded to leave Boston and Northwich out of these calculations. Doing so would make the NPL  success rate about 1 point lower than it would with them included.  Leaving them out would, in the interests of consistency, require Northwich (again!) to be left out of the Conf Prem/Conf North calculation. That’s because  in the  2004-05 season, when there were only three teams relegated,  The Vics finished one place outside the relegation spots but  were relegated in place of Forest Green over issues with their ground.  Their finishing position even before relegation was a false one anyway, partly brought about by a ten-point deduction.
That would improve the Conference North rating just a touch, but not enough to make it appear stronger than Conference South.

This is the same table, with Boston and Northwich excluded:

				Table B
				step 2	step 3	change
200405		Runcorn	..	38.10%	27.38%	-10.71%
200405		Ashton	..	29.76%	42.86%	13.10%
200405		Bradford PA	..	22.62%	34.52%	11.90%
200506		Hednesford	..	33.33%	59.52%	26.19%
200607		Worksop	..	39.29%	47.50%	8.21%
200708		Leigh	..	23.81%	34.52%	10.71%
200809		Burscough	..	30.95%	40.79%	9.84%
200809		Hucknall	..	27.38%	42.11%	14.72%
201011		Stafford	..	30.00%	42.86%	12.86%
201112		Blyth Sp	..	32.14%	42.86%	10.71%
201112		Eastwood	..	19.05%	14.29%	-4.76%
				29.68%	39.02%	9.34%

You'll see that the average rate of change goes up a little.

Now on to the promoted clubs:

				Table C
				step 2	step 3	Change
200405	..	Hyde	..	48.81%	75.00%	-26.19%
200405	..	Workington	..	48.81%	70.24%	-21.43%
200506	..	Blyth	..	55.95%	75.00%	-19.05%
200506	..	Farsley C	..	58.33%	66.67%	-8.33%
200607	..	Burscough	..	54.76%	69.05%	-14.29%
200607	..	Telford	..	66.67%	67.86%	-1.19%
200708	..	Fleetwood	..	53.57%	78.75%	-25.18%
200708	..	Gateshead	..	66.67%	73.75%	-7.08%
200809	..	Eastwood	..	48.75%	73.81%	-25.06%
200809	..	Ilkeston	..	56.25%	70.24%	-13.99%
200910	..	Guiseley	..	66.25%	71.05%	-4.80%
200910	..	Boston	..	70.00%	71.05%	-1.05%
201011	..	Halifax	..	63.10%	80.95%	-17.86%
201011	..	Colwyn Bay	..	45.24%	65.48%	-20.24%
201112	..	Chester	..	86.90%	82.14%	4.76%
201112	..	Bradford PA	..	55.95%	64.29%	-8.33%
				59.13%	72.21%	-13.08%

Just one team there - Chester - showing an increase in their success rate from one year to the next; there are small falls for Boston and Telford, both of whom might have considered their natural home to be considerably higher than step 3.

So the average change in success rate between the NPL and Conference North works out at a little over 11 points.


Next, the Isthmian League.

And we'll begin with the relegated clubs again;

				Table D
				step 2	step 3	change
200405	..	Margate	..	38.10%	46.43%	8.33%
200405	..	Redbridge	..	29.76%	13.10%	-16.67%
200506	..	Carshalton	..	38.10%	47.62%	9.52%
200708	..	Sutton Utd	..	22.62%	58.33%	35.71%
200809	..	Bognor Regis Town	..	30.95%	38.10%	7.14%
201011	..	Lewes	..	32.14%	61.90%	29.76%
201112	..	Hampton & Richmond	..	38.10%	47.62%	9.52%
201112	..	Thurrock	..	25.00%	35.71%	10.71%
				31.85%	43.60%	11.76%

So just one team showing a fall in success rate - and that was Redbridge, who, like quite a few teams in Essex around then, were on a downwards path because of a loss of financial backing.

The promoted teams:

				Table E
				step 2	step 3	change
200405	..	Yeading	..	40.48%	72.62%	-32.14%
200405	..	Eastleigh	..	53.57%	67.86%	-14.29%
200506	..	Braintree	..	63.10%	78.57%	-15.48%
200506	..	Fisher	..	48.81%	70.24%	-21.43%
200607	..	Hampton & Richmond	..	66.67%	69.05%	-2.38%
200607	..	Bromley	..	53.57%	67.86%	-14.29%
200708	..	AFC Wimbledon	..	73.81%	60.71%	13.10%
200708	..	Chelmsford	..	64.29%	72.62%	-8.33%
200809	..	Dover Ath	..	60.71%	84.52%	-23.81%
200809	..	Staines	..	58.33%	70.24%	-11.90%
200910	..	Dartford	..	50.00%	76.19%	-26.19%
200910	..	Boreham Wood	..	41.67%	57.14%	-15.48%
201011	..	Sutton Utd	..	64.29%	72.62%	-8.33%
201011	..	Tonbridge Angels	..	50.00%	64.29%	-14.29%
201112	..	Billericay	..	34.52%	72.62%	-38.10%
201112	..	Hornchurch	..	39.29%	66.67%	-27.38%
				53.94%	70.24%	-16.29%

 This table bears a remarkable resemblance to the one for teams promoted from the NPL: again there is one team showing an increase in their success rate following promotion: it's AFC Wimbledon who, like Chester, had increasing momentum behind them.

The two teams promoted at the end of 2011-12, Billericay and Hornchurch, recorded the highest and third highest falls in success rate in their first season at step 2, and were both relegated.  There's one perhaps surprisingly large fall in success rate, given the size of the club involved - Dover's nearly 24% drop, but that was after a remarkably good rate of over 84% the previous year and the 60% plus they achieved after promotion was one of the higher ones returned by a promoted Isthmian league club.

Overall the implied difference between the Isthmian League and Conference South is around 14 points - a shade more than between the NPL and Conference North.

The final step 3 league to look at is The Southern League, which is the only one at this level (so far!) to exchange clubs with both step 2 divisions.

Again we'll look at the relegated clubs first - though there aren't many of them.

				Table F
				step 2	step 3	change
200506	..	Maidenhead	..	29.76%	59.52%	29.76%
200607	..	Bedford	..	27.38%	39.29%	11.90%
200910	..	Weymouth	..	20.24%	40.00%	19.76%
201011	..	Redditch	..	15.00%	44.05%	29.05%
201011	..	St Albans	..	32.14%	53.57%	21.43%
				24.90%	47.29%	22.38%

Note that I've left out Cambridge City from that table.  They were demoted  from Conference South in 2008 because of ground grading issues; they'd finished 14th, with a success rate of around 45%.    Justification the same as for Boston and Northwich in the NPL.
Only one of those teams (Redditch) was relegated from Conference North,  There are probably too few of them to draw any conclusions from - but that's not the case with teams promoted from the Southern League, of which there were several.  Let's begin with those going North:

				Table G
				step 2	step 3	change
200405	..	Hednesford	..	33.33%	59.52%	-26.19%
200708	..	Kings Lynn	..	45.24%	72.62%	-27.38%
200809	..	Corby	..	56.25%	70.24%	-13.99%
200809	..	Gloucester	..	37.50%	64.29%	-26.79%
200910	..	Nuneaton	..	63.75%	73.81%	-10.06%
201112	..	Brackley	..	70.24%	71.43%	-1.19%
201112	..	Oxford City	..	50.00%	65.48%	-15.48%
				50.90%	68.20%	-17.30%

And then those going to Conference South:

				Table H
				step 2	step 3	change
200405	..	Histon	..	59.52%	64.29%	-4.76%
200506	..	Salisbury	..	64.29%	77.38%	-13.10%
200506	..	Bedford	..	27.38%	64.29%	-36.90%
200607	..	Bath	..	58.33%	76.19%	-17.86%
200607	..	Maidenhead	..	40.48%	59.52%	-19.05%
200708	..	Team Bath	..	46.43%	69.05%	-22.62%
200910	..	Farnborough	..	67.86%	77.38%	-9.52%
201011	..	Truro	..	41.67%	75.00%	-33.33%
201011	..	Salisbury	..	50.00%	70.00%	-20.00%
				50.66%	70.34%	-19.68%

What strikes about those two tables is that the average success rate at step 2 is nearly the same for Conference North and Conference South - though the average success rate of teams promoted to Conference South was appreciably higher than that of those who went North.

Nobody improved their success rate; the nearest miss came from Brackley - a surprisingly low-profile wealthy non-League club.  There isn't really a giant club on its way back to its perceived rightful home  in either table.


So, what conclusions can we draw?

Teams from the NPL did far better, when promoted, than their counterparts from the Isthmian or Southern Leagues, and the Isthmian promotees did better than their Southern counterparts.

The Southern League, however, didn't have a big club making the step up while the NPL had three (Telford, Halifax  and Chester) while the Isthmian had one (AFC Wimbledon)

Those tables from the Southern League suggest that Conference North is a little bit weaker than Conference South.

That's just what the exercise covering the two step 2 divisions suggested.

As for whether the NPL or the Isthmian is the stronger league - it's hard to say; though both appear to be stronger than the Southern League.

That's broadly in agreement, then, with another exercise from @nltipping which looked at the relative strengths of the three step 3 leagues from another angle.
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