North v South

Time to resurrect this blog, and enter a debate on the relative strengths of Conference North and Conference South.     I'd been trying to find a way to work these out; The  tweeter NonLeague Football  - @nltipping - , has one approach and he concludes that the South is a little stronger.

I'd been taking a slightly different approach, and reached the same conclusions.

My method was to look at teams' "success rates" - in effect the percentage of maximum points gained, if there had been only two points on offer for a win, and not three: so a team winning and losing the same number of games in a season would get a 50% record, irrespective of how many games they had drawn.

First, then, the full table for teams moving between Conference Premier and Conference North.

• The first column shows the first season relevant for that team
• The second column shows the team name
• The third column shows whether hey were relegated or promoted after the season in column 1
• The fourth column shows their success rate in the Premier - which would be in the season named in column 1 if they were relegated and the season in column 2 if they were promoted
• The fifth column shows their success rate in the North - after relegation or before promotion
• The final column shows the difference between the two

		Table A
Club	P or R	In Prem	In North	N-P
Altrincham	P	36.90%	59.52%	22.62%
Southport	P	35.71%	70.24%	34.52%
Northwich	P	43.48%	75.00%	31.52%
Stafford	P	41.30%	71.43%	30.12%
Droylsden	P	20.65%	65.48%	44.82%
Farsley	P	31.52%	58.33%	26.81%
Barrow	P	42.39%	65.48%	23.08%
Kettering	P	59.78%	79.76%	19.98%
Gateshead	P	37.50%	66.67%	29.17%
Tamworth	P	43.18%	72.62%	29.44%
Fleetwood	P	60.87%	73.75%	12.88%
Southport	P	38.04%	76.25%	38.21%
Alfreton	P	42.39%	78.75%	36.36%
Telford	P	39.13%	73.75%	34.62%
Hyde	P	42.39%	75.00%	32.61%
Nuneaton	P	46.74%	66.67%	19.93%
Leigh	R	16.67%	36.90%	20.24%
Northwich	R	45.24%	75.00%	29.76%
Scarborough	R	33.33%	50.00%	16.67%
Southport	R	39.13%	65.48%	26.35%
Tamworth	R	38.04%	44.05%	6.00%
Droylsden	R	20.65%	59.52%	38.87%
Farsley	R	31.52%	39.29%	7.76%
Northwich	R	34.78%	53.75%	18.97%
Altrincham	R	35.87%	52.38%	16.51%
Histon	R	27.17%	46.43%	19.25%
		37.86%	63.52%	25.66%

So we can see from that that a team success rates in the Premier are around 25 points lower than  those in the North, from teams moving between the two. But are the rates he same for promoted and relegated teams?  



Here’s a table, showing the promoted clubs only:

		Table B
		In Prem	In North	N-P
200405	Altrincham	36.90%	59.52%	22.62%
200405	Southport	35.71%	70.24%	34.52%
200506	Northwich	43.48%	75.00%	31.52%
200506	Stafford	41.30%	71.43%	30.12%
200607	Droylsden	20.65%	65.48%	44.82%
200607	Farsley	31.52%	58.33%	26.81%
200708	Barrow	42.39%	65.48%	23.08%
200708	Kettering	59.78%	79.76%	19.98%
200809	Gateshead	37.50%	66.67%	29.17%
200809	Tamworth	43.18%	72.62%	29.44%
200910	Fleetwood	60.87%	73.75%	12.88%
200910	Southport	38.04%	76.25%	38.21%
201011	Alfreton	42.39%	78.75%	36.36%
201011	Telford	39.13%	73.75%	34.62%
201112	Hyde	42.39%	75.00%	32.61%
201112	Nuneaton	46.74%	66.67%	19.93%
		41.37%	70.54%	29.17%

And one, showing the relegated clubs only:

		Table C
		In Prem	In North	N-P
200405	Leigh	16.67%	36.90%	20.24%
200405	Northwich	45.24%	75.00%	29.76%
200506	Scarborough	33.33%	50.00%	16.67%
200607	Southport	39.13%	65.48%	26.35%
200607	Tamworth	38.04%	44.05%	6.00%
200708	Droylsden	20.65%	59.52%	38.87%
200708	Farsley	31.52%	39.29%	7.76%
200809	Northwich	34.78%	53.75%	18.97%
201011	Altrincham	35.87%	52.38%	16.51%
201011	Histon	27.17%	46.43%	19.25%
		32.24%	52.28%	20.04%

So the answer is no - there’s a far smaller change for relegated teams.  The same applies in the South, as we shall see.  On to the Premier v South figures, beginning with all of them:

			Table D
Season	Club	P or R	In Prem	In South	N-P
200405	Grays Ath	P	65.48%	80.95%	15.48%
200405	Farnborough	R	27.38%	65.48%	38.10%
200506	Weymouth	P	48.91%	76.19%	27.28%
200506	St Albans	P	32.61%	70.24%	37.63%
200607	Histon	P	56.52%	76.19%	19.67%
200607	Salisbury	P	54.35%	63.10%	8.75%
200607	St Albans	R	32.61%	38.10%	5.49%
200708	Lewes	P	19.57%	73.81%	54.24%
200708	Eastbourne	P	45.65%	67.86%	22.20%
200809	AFC Wimbledon	P	52.27%	73.81%	21.54%
200809	Hayes & Yeading	P	40.91%	67.86%	26.95%
200809	Woking	R	36.96%	60.71%	23.76%
200809	Weymouth	R	34.78%	20.24%	-14.54%
200809	Lewes	R	19.57%	39.29%	19.72%
200910	Newport	P	55.43%	84.52%	29.09%
200910	Bath	P	51.09%	61.90%	10.82%
200910	Ebbsfleet	R	36.36%	66.67%	30.30%
201011	Ebbsfleet	P	43.48%	66.67%	23.19%
201011	Braintree	P	48.91%	73.81%	24.90%
201011	Eastbourne	R	31.52%	39.29%	7.76%
201112	Woking	P	47.83%	79.76%	31.94%
201112	Dartford	P	51.09%	73.81%	22.72%
201112	Hayes & Yeading	R	32.61%	41.67%	9.06%
201112	Bath	R	26.09%	47.62%	21.53%
			41.33%	62.90%	21.56%

So the overall change is a little smaller between Premier and South than it is between Premier and North, implying that Conference South is a little stronger than Conference North.
Note that Weymouth were relegated from the Premier and had a lower pints total in the South than they had in the Premier; it’s the only case of this happening between steps 1 and 2.   Weymouth had terrible financial problems at the time, from which they are only now beginning to recover.  It says something important about non-League: clubs with financial problems seem to be far more seriously affected by them, and far sooner, than they are in the Football League or Premier League.

Now look at the promoted clubs only:

		Table E
		In Prem	In South	N-P
200405	Grays Ath	65.48%	80.95%	15.48%
200506	Weymouth	48.91%	76.19%	27.28%
200506	St Albans	32.61%	70.24%	37.63%
200607	Histon	56.52%	76.19%	19.67%
200607	Salisbury	54.35%	63.10%	8.75%
200708	Lewes	19.57%	73.81%	54.24%
200708	Eastbourne	45.65%	67.86%	22.20%
200809	AFC Wimbledon	52.27%	73.81%	21.54%
200809	Hayes & Yeading	40.91%	67.86%	26.95%
200910	Newport	55.43%	84.52%	29.09%
200910	Bath	51.09%	61.90%	10.82%
201011	Ebbsfleet	43.48%	66.67%	23.19%
201011	Braintree	48.91%	73.81%	24.90%
201112	Woking	47.83%	79.76%	31.94%
201112	Dartford	51.09%	73.81%	22.72%
		47.61%	72.70%	25.09%

And finally the relegated clubs only:

		Table E
		In Prem	In South	N-P
200405	Farnborough	27.38%	65.48%	38.10%
200607	St Albans	32.61%	38.10%	5.49%
200809	Woking	36.96%	60.71%	23.76%
200809	Weymouth	34.78%	20.24%	-14.54%
200809	Lewes	19.57%	39.29%	19.72%
200910	Ebbsfleet	36.36%	66.67%	30.30%
201011	Eastbourne	31.52%	39.29%	7.76%
201112	Hayes & Yeading	32.61%	41.67%	9.06%
201112	Bath	26.09%	47.62%	21.53%
		30.88%	46.56%	15.69%

So again we get the pattern whereby relegated clubs see a smaller change in their fortunes than promoted clubs do.


The overall impression from these figures is that the South is stronger than the North - by about  4 success rate points; that takes figures from Table A and Table D.  Those take an average figure from all teams moving between Premier and North/South; but in each case, the number of teams promoted is higher than the number relegated.  This is because of an extension the Premier after 2005-06 and various reprieves from relegation caused by team closures or compulsory demotions by more than one division.

Hence he true figure for the differences between the two levels is probably a little smaller in each case.

The Premier is, using the average of the two differences between Prem and North,  24.58 points stronger than the North rather than the 25.66 given; and the Prem is, using the same figures, about 20.39 points stronger than the South.
So the South is something over 4 success rate points stronger than the North.  

What does that mean?

Well, imagine a team in the South with a 50% success rate.  Assuming they draw 10 of their games, that would leave 16 wins and 16 losses.

My figures suggest - and it’s a very general  suggestion - that a team of exactly the same strength, playing in the North, would return a success rate of about 54.2% - something approaching 46 points in a 42 games season with 2 points for a win, or, assuming 10 draws again, around 5 extra points in a 42 game season with 3 points for a win.