Thursday 23 September 2010

Just when you think things can't get much worse, they get a little better

At last, some good news.  Or at least, some 'not bad' news; two clubs who started the week fearing that they might have played their last game will continue in existence, for the time being at least.

First, Croydon Athletic, the Isthmian Premier Division team that very nearly folded in the wake of the cricket spot-fixing scandal.  This week The Rams were able to post a bond to the Isthmian League, returnable upon their completion of league fixtures for the season; and yesterday - Wednesday - they were able to complete all necessary paperwork, allowing their game at Aveley on Friday evening to go ahead.

It's easy to scoff at the people who run football at that level, but on this occasion I believe we should applaud the Isthmian League - and the FA - for their patience and understanding.  Croydon Athletic appear not to be very popular in non-league circles, for the way they 'bought' their promotion last season, paying their players way beyond what you would expect a club with their crowds to be able to afford.  It seems, though, that they have paid all their creditors, including HMRC.  The club warns its fans that the budget will be 'very tight' for the rest of the season, and the team from now on will be 'very different.'  But at least  it still exists.

The other club with cause for celebration this week is Hinckley Utd, of Blue Square North.  They have managed, yet again, to have a winding-up petition from HMRC adjourned, this time until November.  This time there seems to be more cause for optimism than there was with previous adjournments: three local businessmen have been added to the board, and the club hopes to be able to pay its debt to HMRC through the sale of part of its property, which it 'expects to be finalised' by the time the next hearing comes round, in November.  Hunckley remain under a transfer embargo, and have some of their permitted 16 players injured.

Wednesday 22 September 2010

Maison des Horreurs

The post below outlines some of the ways a non-league football club can get itself into difficulty.   It would be most unfair, though, to say that all non-league clubs facing hard times are in a mess of their own making.  An example of a club finding itself facing a potential crisis through no - or very little - fault of its own is Kettering Town.

The Poppies' lease on their ground, Rockingham Road, runs out in 2013, and as yet there is no indication of what is going to happen thereafter.  Should they be promoted, they would be forced to consider a groundshare since Football League regulations stipulate that clubs coming into the League who do not own their ground should have a lease on it for at least ten years.  Kettering's start to the current season strongly suggests that that won't be a problem just yet, but developments this week have sent Poppies fans into a lather.   Some background is required here.

Kettering were, for some time and with conspicuous success, managed by Mark Cooper.  Last season he left to take over as manager of Peterborough; he was replaced by Lee Harper, who was the team's first-choice goalkeeper.  Harper appointed as his No. 2  John Deehan, the  former Villa, West Brom and Norwich  player; Deehan was in effect the manager on match days, in charge of substitutions, with Lee Harper believing that he needed someone not on the field to be in charge of that sort of thing on matchdays.  Deehan was fired by Kettering's chairman Imraan Ladak after a 5-1 extra time defeat at Leeds: Ladak had disapproved of a substitution made by Deehan during that game.  Harper stayed: but this week he left, to be replaced by Morell Maison.

Maison is a former Kettering manager who was fired by Ladak after "only" taking the team to the play-offs from Conference North in 2006-07; he wasn't even allowed to take the team into the playoffs, that privilege instead falling to Graham Westley.  They were eliminated by Farsley Celtic, but gained promotion the following year under Cooper.  It was after that, though, that Morell Maison really made his  reputation in the game, during a turbulent period as majority shareholder, and manager, of Halesowen Town.

Things started quite well for Maison, who took Halesowen to the play-offs in the Southern League Premier Division in  2007-08 but the following season was a nightmare for the club.  It all started in September, with a game at Chippenham.  The game had started with Halesowen in second place in the table.  Chippenham beat them 2-1: after the game Maison called his players together for an on-field debrief, as was his habit. He became involved in a full and frank exchange of views with one of his unused substitutes, Dean Brennan (who had been the division's top scorer the previous season, while with Corby) after which Brennan required medical treatment.   Results declined: so did the club's financial position.  A number of players were released.  Replacements were brought in, several of them on loan: one, from Leicestershire, missed his stop when on  his way to his debut game and ended up in London, leaving Halesowen short-handed for the game.

Two clubs who had loaned players to Halesowen complained that they hadn't received any fees, and Halesowen were threatened with suspension from the FA - which would have prevented their playing. Those fees were paid, just in time: but two other clubs were not paid their share of the gate from FA Cup and FA Trophy ties played at Halesowen.   That led to Halesowen being banned from both competitions for the 2009-10 season - the ban from the FA Cup still applies in 2010-11.  The Yeltz Trust - a fans' group - believed they had overthrown Maison at a general meeting, but the coup was overturned upon appeal to the courts.  One of the leaders of it, together with the club's groundsman, launched a winding-up petition: Maison took the club into administration and they were deducted ten points.  Maison eventually left, only to resurface
briefly, and very oddly, at Chester City.

So, what of Maison's return to Kettering?  Fans don't seem to have been filled with enthusiasm, with some of them expressing the hope that he doesn't get good results during his spell as caretaker manager, lest he be given the job on a permanent basis.  His record as Halesowen manager suggests he's quite a good coach - as does his previous record at Kettering.   But let's say he hasn't got much business sense.  And he seems to regard any questioning of his decisions as a personal affront.  If Maison gets the job permanently, Kettering should do ok, provided he just does the coaching. 

When Lee Harper departed, Kettering's fans forum ran an online poll   to see who they might want to replace him.  The thread starter posted "Have resisted the temptation to add Morell Maison and Ron Atkinson" - Atkinson, a Kettering manager form the 1970s, was Maison's mentor when he was there previously.  Mark Cooper and A. N. Other lead the poll.  Life is never dull at Kettering while Imraan Ladak is there.  I've got the feeling that it's going to be even less dull while Maison is there - even if it isn't going to be much brighter.

Tuesday 14 September 2010

How to ruin a non-league football club

I first undertook the study of non-league football in order to inform myself about individual clubs better and give myself an edge over the bookies.  In doing so, I have come across several clubs who have got themselves into financial trouble.  There are several ways that this can happen.  So, if you want to ruin a non-league football club, you could put into practice one or more of these tried and tested strategies.

1.  Use a club to launder money raised from   illegal activity.
This has, reputedly, happened to at least four clubs in recent years:  I don't want to find myself being spoken to by men in horsehair wigs, let alone by men wearing ski masks, so I won't name any of the clubs.

2. Live the dream
I know the phrase originated with Leeds United, who aren't a non-league club, but the principles are essentially the same.  What you should do is:
*  Look at the average attendance over the past few years, or still better the highest attendance, and base your business plan on that being an attainable average for the next few years.  Ignore the fact that the highest attendance was against a team with huge travelling support, and that the average attendance was thereby skewed upwards.  On no account should you look at the median attendance.
* Assume that if you spend lots of money on players, they will be good
* On no account should you consider the possibility that other teams in the same division will adopt the same strategy
* Therefore assume that your newly-acquired team will win promotion this season
* And that they will draw far bigger gates next season in a higher division, when you can repeat the whole thing again

3.  Look at the club's other assets
Prinicipally, the club's 'other assets' will comprise the ground.  You should take over all of the club, then decouple the ground from the football club.  You can then sell the ground to property developers, who will charge rent to the club for its use.  You won't be too popular with the fans, but who cares?
Note: Make sure that the local council will allow development of the ground for other purposes before you try to sell it!

4.  Don't pay your bills
Principally this applies to HMRC, who are likely to be your biggest creditor, but it equally applies to local businesses.  Make, though, that you pay your players, else they'll go elsewhere.  Indeed, you should strongly consider the next step:

5.  Make illegal and unrecorded payments to your players
The beauty of this is that it will get you into trouble with the FA and HMRC.  It'll probably make your fans regard the players as money-grabbers, too.

6.  Ignore any instructions made by the ground-grading committee
Using some combination of the above strategies, you've probably got your team promoted, though the FA have told you that you'll have to improve parts of the ground if you are to be allowed to stay at that level for the following season, however you do on the pitch.  Just don't take any notice.  They wouldn't dare relegate you.  Would they?

7.  Get your contracting of players strategy right. 
This means that you should put your weaker players on contracts so that you can't get rid of them, and that you should not offer contracts to your better players, so that other clubs can take them off you without your getting any compensation.

8.  Do nothing to discourage your hooligan element
Over time you'll get fewer and fewer visiting fans at your club, and probably lose quite a few home fans, too


9  Sign a ridiculuosly onerous contract with a local brewery for your social club bar
This will minimise  any contribution to the club's profitability and may even put you into an 'insolvency event'

10 Disrespect all your local rivals, especially those of higher status
You don't want them offering good young players to you on loan, or agreeing to pre-season friendlies, do you?

11 Alienate your fanbase
This requires very little financial outlay, but it can be extremely effective!  A few well-timed press releases or statements in the match programme should do the trick.

Monday 13 September 2010

A lucky escape - or perhaps not

This is a new blog, so it will take some time to find its voice.  For the moment I don't know whether it's going to be about non-league football, or about betting on non-league football - this entry is, mostly, about the experience of betting on non-league football.

First, to last week's bets, recommended on here.  Eastwood only drew with Ilkeston, losing me 6 points; Carshalton won at Croydon Athletic, returning me 20 points from a 5 points stake.

So the figures so far are:

Bets recommended:  2
Bets won:  1
Strike rate:  50%
Total points staked:  11
Points returned:  14
ROI:  127.3%

There were no recommended bets this week.  Why not?  For a number of reasons.

First, I was a bit spooked that both clubs I opposed immediately ran into trouble and, in all likelihood, will not play again.  Their troubles were well-known, and mentioned in this blog; indeed, they were the major part of my reasoning behind making those recommendations.  Do I feel guilty about making money from their misfortunes? No.  The information wasn't exactly private, and I made money from the bookies, not from the clubs.

The main reason for making no recommendations this week, though, was the bookies themselves.

This was the weekend of the 1st Qualifying Round of the FA Cup, and I had hoped that Bwin - with whom I place a large proportion of my bets - would price up all 120 (or,a s it turned out, 119) ties.  But they didn't.

There were loads of bets that I considered.  I thought about backing Newcastle Town to win at Hednesford at 9/2; but not for long.  I thought about backing Hucknall to win at Barwell at 29/20, but was put off the idea by a Hucknall fan of my acquaintance.  I thought about backing Mickleover Sports to win at Retford, but the odds didn't seem quite generous enough.  I jumped on Salisbury to win at Highworth at 4/7; they immediately shortened, and kicked-off at 2/5: the bet had been widely tipped on the internet, including by me.
After some thought, I backed Colwyn Bay to win at Marine at what seemed a generous 5/2, and I also jumped on Stourbridge to beat Romulus at  11/20.
In league games - step 1 & 2 teams played a league programme this week - I backed Nuneaton to winat home to Alfreton at what seemed to be a generous 3/1; Alfreton hitherto had a 100% record, though it was  against a fairly weak set of opponents. And I thought about backing Telford to win at Solihull Moors, at 5/4.
I'd considered lots of bets from FA Cup games that, eventually, Bwin didn't cover, making a case for backing Dunston UTS against Bradford PA and Sheffield FC at Woodley Sports - in each case games were moved because the home teams usually use a plastic pitch, and they are banned in the FA Cup; and I also made a case for backing FA Vase holders Whitley Bay at Ossett Albion.  And Rugby Town's odds to win at Step6 Wednesfield would have had to have been very short indeed to stop me from backing them.
So what happened?
The bets I put on, and posted on soccerlotto, were on Salisbury, Stourbridge, Colwyn Bay and Nuneaton, though the Colwyn Bay tip was opposed by another soccerlotto member.
Of those four, only Stourbridge won.
Of the bets that I thought about:
Hucknall lost, as the Hucknall fan thought they might;
Mickleover Sports won at Retford, 5-0;
Newcastle Town beat Hednesford 2-1,
Telford won at Solihull, 1-0.
From the bets that I almost certainly would have had, had Bwin or anyone else priced the games up:
Rugby, amazingly, lost 5-1 at Wednesfield; Dunston UTS and Whitley Bay both won; and Sheffield FC drew at Woodley Sports.
So, what was my reaction?
Annoyance at the losing bets, of course: but at those I didn't make . . . .
Annoyance, mostly.
I should, of course, have examined my reasons for not taking those bets.  In the end it was down to 'feel';
that's a large part of my bet selection.  I'm partly guided by, but do not slavishly follow, statistics.
This week, my 'feel' was wrong.  Up to now, it's been right - on soccerlotto, anyway.
I'll have losing weeks, just as I'll have winning weeks.  Generally I've got faith in my judgment, or 'feel.'
Last year, incidentally, I did pretty awfully in the FA Cup.  Maybe it's a result of being a Birmingham fan.

*********

Some non-league news:

Things still look grim for Croydon  Athletic and Ilkeston Town, particularly the former.  There's the merest chance that Ilky will survive, but I would be more than a little surprised if they did.
Crawley seem to be quite unpopular with other non-league clubs, and they've been accused of making an illegal approach to another club (Billericay) for a player.
There's a bit of a power struggle going on at Wrexham, with the future ownership of The Racecourse Ground in doubt.  As I understand it there is a proposal that Celtic Crusaders (the Rugby League club who play there) are proposing to buy the ground.  That would, of course, make things difficult for Wrexham, if the
precedent of Stockport County and Sale Sharks is to be considered.  Ominously, Wrexham's independent fans' forum http://www.redpassion.co.uk/ has been taken down in the last couple of days.  There may, of course, be no connection with goings-on at the club but the conspiracy theorist within me suggests that there is - the club and the forum have been at loggerheads before.
According to a story in this week's Non League Paper, St Albans City have been 'accused of' making illegal payments to their players, though no formal charges have yet been brought.  
And Histon  have been 'accused of' chopping down trees which were covered by a protection order at their home ground, The Glassworld Stadium.  The trees were, it seems, removed to make way for a five-a-side pitch
 

Thursday 9 September 2010

Ilkeston wound up

Ilkeston Town were wound up in the High Court yesterday following a petition from HMRC.  The hearing had been the latest in a series the club has had to face over recent months; all previous hearings had been adjourned.

The debt dates back to the time when the previous owner, Chek Whyte, was in control of the club.  I don't know why Ilkeston didn't opt for administration,  the route taken by several other clubs.  Ilkeston had seemed remarkably unfussed - in public, anyway, - about this week's hearing.

Reports stated that Ilkeston "expected to sell a player in the next couple of weeks" and that they could pay off the tax debt in instalments of £1,000 "from income from the start of the season."  The transfer window doesn't operate at Ilkeston's level; it could be that another Step 2 club was willing to but one of Ilky's players - presumably Amari Morgan-Smith - but those two statements taken together seem to me as though they were prepared for one of the earlier court hearings.

 This is Derbyshire today reports this, from former owner Chek Whyte; " Mr Whyte denied that his time at the club had contributed to the club's demise. "How can we contribute to it when we took the team to the next level?" 

You contributed to it, Mr Whyte, by not paying tax bills.  You contributed to it by allowing the club to live beyond its means.  You contributed to it by recruiting players the club could not afford.  You contributed to it by taking the club to the next level.

Monday 6 September 2010

Bostin' Links

Okay, I've recycled the title for this post from my other blog - and, perhaps it isn't the most sensitive title for it.

Why not?  Because one of the links is from Kings Lynn Town FC's website, and they are the traditional rivals of Boston.    Nonetheless, it's an excellent link: league tables. for all the non-league divisions from step 1 to step 4 - yes, all 12 divisions - plus the two in the general area of Kings Lynn.  Not just league tables, but league tables where you can click on a team name and see their record against each of the other teams in that league, showing you who has had a strong set of fixtures, or a good record against teams in one part of the table . . . it shows all the information the previous, "step 4 grids" link used to show, and more.  Much recommended.

If you are reading this, you are very probably a member of the soccerlotto.com website, and that's what the second link will take you to.  It'll give you access to more stats than you can shake a stick at - not just in England, but elsewhere in Europe, too.  There's a lively messageboard on it, well worth looking at.  If you click on it and subscribe - you'll earn me a fiver!

******

Kings Lynn Town, as plain 'Kings Lynn' were a step 3 non-league club last season, but folded during the season.  Indeed, of the 266 clubs who planned to start in the top four steps of non-league football in England last season, several didn't make it to the end of the season:
Newcastle Blue Star of the Northern Premier League folded before the start of the season
Kings Lynn, also of the NPL - though only playing at that level because of issues with their ground which was deemed inadequate for Conference North where they had played in 2008-09 - folded in December.
Chester City, of Conference Premier, closed down early in 2010.
Farsley Celtic, folded in February.
Rothwell Town, of the Southern League Midland Division, resigned from their league at the end of the season.
Merthyr Tydfil, of the Southern League Premier Division, made it to the end of the season but closed down in May.
VCD Athletic, of the Isthmian League, South Division, were demoted because of issues with their ground.
Grays Athletic made it to the end of the season, but were relegated from the Conference Premier; they 'resigned' from the Cnference as a whole.
Salisbury City were expelled from the Conference under that league's severe anti-insolvency rules, and ended up in the Soutern League, Premier Division.
The same fate befell Northwich Victoria, who ended up in the Northern Premier League, Premier Division.
A series of appeals, counter-appeals and counter, counter-appeals meant that a couple of weeks before the start of the season it seemed that the top four steps of the non-league system would have 268 teams, rather than 266, with an extra team in the Northern Premier League, Division One North (Chester, the reformed version of Chester City) and another in the Isthmian League, First Division South - Grays Athletic.  Soon afterwards Ashford Town - from Kent, not their namesake from Middlesex - announced that they would be 'inactive' this year; Chatham Town were moved from the Isthmian League Division One North, where they had, to their horror, been placed by the relevant League Allocations Committee back in the South division, and the two divisions of the Isthmian League at this level returned to their customary strength of 22 clubs.
Then Bromsgrove Rovers, of the Southern League, Division One South and West, closed down just after the start of the season, but before any games had been played.
Bromsgrove's demise was a shock of about the same magnitude as the one you experience when you wake up the day after Wednesday to find that it's Thursday.   Evrybody who paid any attention to their situation could see that it was going to happen; their whole sorry saga can be viewed in the fans' independent website .

Now Croydon Athletic seem certain to join them.

Sunday 5 September 2010

Rams to the slaughter

Croydon Athletic appear to be heading for a difficult time.

The club - 'the Rams' - had already found themselves the centre of unwelcome attention because of the allegations levelled against their owner, Mazhar Majeed, detailed in an earlier post.  This week Martin Eede, the man who was to become their CEO in a few days' time, announced that he was no longer interested in the job.  On Saturday the Rams lost 1-3 at home to Concord Rangers; immediately after the match their manager Tim O'Shea and his assistant Neil Smith announced their departure from the club, according to an announcement on the club website .   

With the FA Cup 1st qualifying round due next week, it seems to me to be very likely that players won't want to stay at the club for long, and I expect several to leave in the next few days.  Today, it seems, was a last hurrah for many of them.

Betting community has piled in on Tooting and Mitcham, who host Croydon on Tuesday; currently Tooting on offer at 1/3, having shortened earlier to 4/6 from I don't know what.

Thursday 2 September 2010

In-the-red Robins come hob-hob-hobblin' along

Goodness knows how many English non-league football clubs are in serious financial difficulty - but few can find themselves in a worse position than Ilkeston Town, of Conference North.

Ilkeston are one of many clubs who have been financed by a wealthy benefactor, and are now paying the price.  In their case the benefactor was Chek Whyte.   Whyte made his fortune in the construction industry, but a year ago he was declared bankrupt with debts of over £30 million.  At that stage his financial support for the club dried up.  Their commitments, however, continued, and for the last twelve months the new owners have been trying to clean up the mess that Whyte left behind.

As so often in these cases, one of the major creditors was HMRC: Ilkeston are currently facing a winding-up petition for unpaid taxes.  It gets worse.

The club is under a transfer embargo, meaning it can't recruit any new players - they aren't just prevented from buying players, they can't even offer contracts to unattached players, though they are allowed a squad of 16 professionals, enough for a starting XI and full bench of substitutes.

It gets worse, again.

Now they are seriously hit by injuries.  For their most recent game -against Gainsborough Trinity, on Monday,
Ilkeston were able to name only one substitute; two of their stating eleven were carrying injuries and, under normal circumstances, would not have played.  One of those - the club's best player, Amari Morgan-Smith,
was unable to play in the second half.  Gainsborough won the game, 5-2; they had won only one of their other five games played so far this season.

On Saturday, Ilkeston play at home to Eastwood Town, who haven't started the season well with just one won and five defeats so far.  All those six teams are currently in the top ten, and they have a 17-6-6 record in their other games this season. Eastwood's most recent game was at Boston,where they lost 1-0 but gave a very good account of themselves.

I've already placed a bet with Skybet on Eastwood, at 6/4; best odds now available are 11/8, from Corals.

*I'd previously placed a bet on the game mentioned in my previous post: Concord Rangers to win at Croydon Athletic, 10/3 with Skybet; that price was cut and the best price remaining is now 3/1, with Corals.


Bets will be recommended on a scale of 1-10 points, so recommended bets so far for this weekend are:
Eastwood to beat Ilkeston, 6 points at 11/8;
Concord Rangers to beat Croydon Athletic, 5 points at 3/1;
Both with Corals