This is a new blog, so it will take some time to find its voice. For the moment I don't know whether it's going to be about non-league football, or about betting on non-league football - this entry is, mostly, about the experience of betting on non-league football.
First, to last week's bets, recommended on here. Eastwood only drew with Ilkeston, losing me 6 points; Carshalton won at Croydon Athletic, returning me 20 points from a 5 points stake.
So the figures so far are:
Bets recommended: 2
Bets won: 1
Strike rate: 50%
Total points staked: 11
Points returned: 14
ROI: 127.3%
There were no recommended bets this week. Why not? For a number of reasons.
First, I was a bit spooked that both clubs I opposed immediately ran into trouble and, in all likelihood, will not play again. Their troubles were well-known, and mentioned in this blog; indeed, they were the major part of my reasoning behind making those recommendations. Do I feel guilty about making money from their misfortunes? No. The information wasn't exactly private, and I made money from the bookies, not from the clubs.
The main reason for making no recommendations this week, though, was the bookies themselves.
This was the weekend of the 1st Qualifying Round of the FA Cup, and I had hoped that Bwin - with whom I place a large proportion of my bets - would price up all 120 (or,a s it turned out, 119) ties. But they didn't.
There were loads of bets that I considered. I thought about backing Newcastle Town to win at Hednesford at 9/2; but not for long. I thought about backing Hucknall to win at Barwell at 29/20, but was put off the idea by a Hucknall fan of my acquaintance. I thought about backing Mickleover Sports to win at Retford, but the odds didn't seem quite generous enough. I jumped on Salisbury to win at Highworth at 4/7; they immediately shortened, and kicked-off at 2/5: the bet had been widely tipped on the internet, including by me.
After some thought, I backed Colwyn Bay to win at Marine at what seemed a generous 5/2, and I also jumped on Stourbridge to beat Romulus at 11/20.
In league games - step 1 & 2 teams played a league programme this week - I backed Nuneaton to winat home to Alfreton at what seemed to be a generous 3/1; Alfreton hitherto had a 100% record, though it was against a fairly weak set of opponents. And I thought about backing Telford to win at Solihull Moors, at 5/4.
I'd considered lots of bets from FA Cup games that, eventually, Bwin didn't cover, making a case for backing Dunston UTS against Bradford PA and Sheffield FC at Woodley Sports - in each case games were moved because the home teams usually use a plastic pitch, and they are banned in the FA Cup; and I also made a case for backing FA Vase holders Whitley Bay at Ossett Albion. And Rugby Town's odds to win at Step6 Wednesfield would have had to have been very short indeed to stop me from backing them.
So what happened?
The bets I put on, and posted on soccerlotto, were on Salisbury, Stourbridge, Colwyn Bay and Nuneaton, though the Colwyn Bay tip was opposed by another soccerlotto member.
Of those four, only Stourbridge won.
Of the bets that I thought about:
Hucknall lost, as the Hucknall fan thought they might;
Mickleover Sports won at Retford, 5-0;
Newcastle Town beat Hednesford 2-1,
Telford won at Solihull, 1-0.
From the bets that I almost certainly would have had, had Bwin or anyone else priced the games up:
Rugby, amazingly, lost 5-1 at Wednesfield; Dunston UTS and Whitley Bay both won; and Sheffield FC drew at Woodley Sports.
So, what was my reaction?
Annoyance at the losing bets, of course: but at those I didn't make . . . .
Annoyance, mostly.
I should, of course, have examined my reasons for not taking those bets. In the end it was down to 'feel';
that's a large part of my bet selection. I'm partly guided by, but do not slavishly follow, statistics.
This week, my 'feel' was wrong. Up to now, it's been right - on soccerlotto, anyway.
I'll have losing weeks, just as I'll have winning weeks. Generally I've got faith in my judgment, or 'feel.'
Last year, incidentally, I did pretty awfully in the FA Cup. Maybe it's a result of being a Birmingham fan.
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Some non-league news:
Things still look grim for Croydon Athletic and Ilkeston Town, particularly the former. There's the merest chance that Ilky will survive, but I would be more than a little surprised if they did.
Crawley seem to be quite unpopular with other non-league clubs, and they've been accused of making an illegal approach to another club (Billericay) for a player.
There's a bit of a power struggle going on at Wrexham, with the future ownership of The Racecourse Ground in doubt. As I understand it there is a proposal that Celtic Crusaders (the Rugby League club who play there) are proposing to buy the ground. That would, of course, make things difficult for Wrexham, if the
precedent of Stockport County and Sale Sharks is to be considered. Ominously, Wrexham's independent fans' forum http://www.redpassion.co.uk/ has been taken down in the last couple of days. There may, of course, be no connection with goings-on at the club but the conspiracy theorist within me suggests that there is - the club and the forum have been at loggerheads before.
According to a story in this week's Non League Paper, St Albans City have been 'accused of' making illegal payments to their players, though no formal charges have yet been brought.
And Histon have been 'accused of' chopping down trees which were covered by a protection order at their home ground, The Glassworld Stadium. The trees were, it seems, removed to make way for a five-a-side pitch
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